ETFs Are The Market
Market-environment intelligence from the ETF tape — macro · sector · thematic
00
Market Read
calm, broadening risk-on — caution node: semis
risk-on +3
of 5 votes: IWM/SPY +1 · XLY/XLP -1 · credit +1 · havens +1 · vol-term +1
VIX 15.0 in contango; cross-asset risk vote +3 (risk-on). Breadth broadening — IWM/SPY at the 93th percentile, 66% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day, HY OAS at the 8th percentile. Leadership rotating from decelerating SMH, XLK toward XBI, XLI. The one caution node: semis — see the ranked reads.
Fragility node (caution)SOLID
6.02× median of 12 sectors
semis = decelerating leadership (RRG Weakening) on the most mechanically-loaded (fragility rank #1, 6.02x median) and most-crowded (spec 2.08x) structure.
Breadth: broadeningSOLID
93rd %ile
IWM/SPY at the 93th percentile, 66% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day — broadening.
Credit appetiteSOLID
8th %ile
HY OAS 270bps at the 8th percentile of its window — credit calm — spreads near window tights. HY/IG price ratio confirms.
Volatility: calmSOLID
15.0
VIX 15.0 with vix/vix3m 0.81 (contango) — calm tape.
What changed · vs Mon Jul 6Net risk vote +4 → +3 (XLY/XLP 0→-1)Tension appeared: Rotation vs trendRSP/SPY %ile -16.3ppHY OAS %ile -1.3ppfroth bull $ -$1.6BVIX -0.54IWM/SPY %ile -2.7ppS&P 500 > 200-DMA -0.6pp
00·5
Where the Feeds Agree
Cross-feed convergences (confirm) and tensions (caution) no single feed shows
Confirm
semis: fragility node
SMH price vs its 200-day moving average, % 41SMH 14-day RSI 51SMH 50d/200d SMA cross state (golden/death cross) goldenSMH days since that cross last flipped 258SMH trend regime: ADX-filtered 50/200 cross (up/down/ranging) rangingSMH relative strength vs SPY, own ~1y baseline = 100 138SMH momentum of that relative strength (RRG y-axis) 97.4SMH RRG quadrant (Leading/Weakening/Lagging/Improving) Weakening+4 more
feeds: leverage · rotation · technical-board · signal strength 1.0 of 1.0 max
Confirm
risk appetite widening
hy OAS percentile within its own trailing window 8th %ilehy 60-session change in the spread, bps -13hy option-adjusted spread level, bps 270IWM/SPY 1y percentile of the ratio's own range 93rd %ile% of eligible members above their 200-day 65.6count of RRG names in the Improving quadrant 6
feeds: breadth · regime · signal strength 0.8 of 1.0 max
Tension D3
Leadership exhaustion
semis decelerating from a stretched level (RRG Weakening, +41% > 200DMA)
SMH relative strength vs SPY, own ~1y baseline = 100 138SMH momentum of that relative strength (RRG y-axis) 97.4SMH price vs its 200-day moving average, % 41
feeds: rotation · technical-board · signal strength 0.8 of 1.0 max
Tension D4
Calm surface / crowded underneath
placid index but semis fragile (rank<=2) and crowded (spec 2.08x)
VIX index level 15.03semis leveraged-ETF vs vanilla $-volume ratio (crowding gauge) 2.077semis fragility rank (1 = most mechanically loaded) 1
feeds: regime · leverage · signal strength 0.7 of 1.0 max
Tension D6
Rotation vs trend
solar Lagging on RS but technically strong
TAN RRG quadrant (Leading/Weakening/Lagging/Improving) LaggingTAN trend regime: ADX-filtered 50/200 cross (up/down/ranging) up
feeds: rotation · technical-board · signal strength 0.5 of 1.0 max
01yfinance · EOD 2026-07-10
State of the Tape
calm, risk-on, broadening — havens being sold
Vol
VIX
15.0indexΔ -0.54 vs Mon Jul 6
contango / calm
VIX/VIX3M 0.809 · VIX9D/VIX 0.742
Credit
HY OAS · FRED / ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads
270bps · 8th %ileΔ -2 bps vs Mon Jul 6Δ -1.3pp vs Mon Jul 6
credit calm — spreads near window tights
methodology & data vintage
percentile window: since 2023-07 (FRED serves ICE BofA OAS as a trailing ~3y window) · -13 bps/60d
HY/IG price ratio (HYG/LQD) — a credit-appetite proxy: 91st %ile · 10y (confirming)
OAS as of 2026-07-09 · FRED OAS observations are EOD and typically lag the equity tape by one session
Breadth · hero
IWM / SPY
93rd%ile · 1y rangeΔ -2.7pp vs Mon Jul 6
breadth broadening · +0.8%/20d
full-history rank · 20th %ile · 10y
Small-caps leading large — IWM/SPY at the 93rd percentile of its 1y range — broadening.
Dollar
UUP
+3.9% /60d
dollar firm
Havens
GLD
-15.3%/60d
gold consolidating
Gold weak while the tape is risk-on with the dollar firm: haven selling, not fear.
XLY/XLP offense/defense · 91st %ile · 10y · mixed consumer posture · XLY is itself 47.6% AI-capex — see §05TLT rates · -3.1%/60d · rates range-boundrisk-on tape — contango — dollar firm — credit calm
Primary-market flows · 5-day net creations / redemptions
SOXL+$2.6B
XLP+$617.3M
XLI+$580.7M
XLF+$550.0M
XLE-$455.2M
XLU+$424.7M
XLC-$371.0M
TQQQ-$310.8M
XLK+$247.5M
XLB+$218.1M
SOXS-$205.5M
XLRE+$129.3M
SQQQ+$128.1M
XLV+$56.4M
SPXL-$55.3M
TSLL+$53.9M
TNA+$32.4M
XLY+$28.6M
ERX-$12.1M
TZA-$12.1M
TECL+$10.5M
DPST-$7.2M
NAIL-$6.2M
SPXS-$5.3M
YANG+$5.0M
TECS-$4.2M
LABD+$1.4M
LABU-$612K
ERY+$532K
YINN+$0
5 legs have no free NAV/shares source (defiance / graniteshares / t-rex / tradr) — a structural absence, not an outage.
flows as-of 2026-07-10 · issuer NAV/shares (T-1: freshest value is prior close)
methodology · masks · caveats
coverage 30/30 legs · grade DIRECTIONAL · implemented issuers: ProShares 2 · Direxion 17 · SSGA sectors 11 · unsupported 5
5 split-suspect day(s) masked(|ΔSO| > 25% — a split/restatement guard; a genuine giant-flow day is masked too):
XLK — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.7% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLE — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.8% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLY — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=95.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLU — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=101.5% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLB — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=98.6% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
- T-1 staleness: issuer NAV/shares strike after the close — freshest value is prior close.
- In-kind creations/redemptions are primary-market activity, not screen pressure.
- Delta-SO flow is a lower bound on positioning change (internalized AP activity nets out).
- Days with |delta-SO| > 25% are masked as suspect (split/restatement guard); a genuine giant flow day is also masked — inspect errors[] for masked rows.
- Direxion flows use close price as NAV proxy (issuer publishes no NAV in the holdings CSV).
- No percentile/z-score claims: cross-fund flow history is too short for most funds (later task).
Index calendar · upcomingmonthly OpEx in 7d 2026-07-17triple-witching / S&P rebalance in 70d 2026-09-18Russell reconstitution in 350d 2027-06-25rule-derived from 2026-07-10: 3rd-Friday expirations · last-Friday-of-June Russell recon
02yfinance · EOD 2026-07-10
Technical Board
broad uptrend, cooling near-term
Constituent breadth · S&P 500 members vs their own 200/50-DMA
66% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day (328/500 eligible of 503 · broad)Δ -0.6pp vs Mon Jul 6 · 68% above 50-day (340/501)
66% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average — broad participation
RSP/SPY · 37th %ile · -0.3%/20d · -1.3%/60dΔ -16.3pp vs Mon Jul 6QQQE/QQQ · 31st %ile · +0.6%/20d · +1.0%/60dequal-weight ÷ cap-weight — rising = the average member leading
60 sessions · latest n 500/503 · backseries computed against current membership — historical sessions carry mild survivorship (index adds/removals inside the window, a few names of ~503); the latest reading is clean
constituent breadth as of 2026-07-10 · grade SOLID · direct measurement (no fund proxy)
ETF-proxy read (confirming) · 80% of tracked equity ETFs above their 200-day (20/25 — regime proxies excluded) · 60% above 20-day
Participation is broad (66% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day); the stretch risk sits at the extended top (SMH, XBI), not the base.
Signal by exception · 5 flagged
XLFfresh golden cross · 1dXLVfresh golden cross · 2dSMH+41% vs 200-DMA · extendedXLCbasing → turning upKWEBbasing → turning up
Board pills vs the hero read: 3 of 4 “Broad market” pills read “range / mixed” — a per-fund price-trend vote (ADX-gated) — while the §00 hero nets cross-asset risk votes (risk-on +3). Different questions; disagreement is by design.
Show full board — all 30 names, all columns
| Ticker | Price | vs20 | vs200 | RSI | ADX | 50/200 | State | Read (trend · mom · agree) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad market | |||||||||
| SPY | 754.95 | +1.5% | +8.7% | 59 | 21 | 50▲200 257d | range / mixed | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| QQQ | 725.51 | +0.4% | +13.7% | 53 | 17 | 50▲200 262d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| IWM | 295.99 | +0.0% | +12.9% | 54 | 10 | 50▲200 232d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| DIA | 525.78 | +1.0% | +8.1% | 61 | 21 | 50▲200 248d | range / mixed | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| Sectors (SPDR) | |||||||||
| XLK | 185.78 | +0.3% | +21.6% | 53 | 15 | 50▲200 57d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLF | 55.71 | +2.6% | +5.9% | 66 | 33 | 50▲200 1d | trending up | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | — |
| XLV | 160.84 | +2.5% | +6.6% | 60 | 26 | 50▲200 2d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| XLE | 55.08 | +1.1% | +6.8% | 49 | 20 | 50▲200 205d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLI | 181.92 | +0.4% | +10.1% | 55 | 15 | 50▲200 266d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLY | 117.24 | +0.7% | -0.2% | 52 | 11 | 50▼200 6d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLP | 84.12 | -0.1% | +2.8% | 50 | 11 | 50▲200 105d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLU | 45.41 | +0.5% | +1.4% | 53 | 11 | 50▲200 288d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLB | 50.89 | -1.1% | +5.0% | 48 | 13 | 50▲200 240d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLRE | 44.45 | -0.2% | +4.9% | 50 | 12 | 50▲200 90d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLC | 111.64 | +2.1% | -2.8% | 54 | 21 | 50▼200 37d | basing → turning up | ▼ down · neutral · diverging | — |
| Themes & speculative | |||||||||
| SMH | 611.03 | -1.7% | +41.0% | 51 | 16 | 50▲200 258d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | semiconductors / AI capex |
| KWEB | 26.38 | +4.1% | -20.1% | 55 | 24 | 50▼200 113d | basing → turning up | ▼ down · firm · diverging | China internet |
| MSOS | 4.49 | -5.5% | +1.4% | 44 | 12 | 50▲200 26d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | US cannabis (regulatory catalyst) |
| TAN | 54.96 | -5.8% | +1.1% | 38 | 27 | 50▲200 246d | trending up | ▲ up · soft · diverging | solar |
| XHB | 108.61 | -1.9% | +1.5% | 49 | 20 | 50▼200 62d | pulling back in uptrend | ▶ flat · neutral · confirming | homebuilders |
| XBI | 159.03 | +5.6% | +27.0% | 66 | 42 | 50▲200 214d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | biotech |
| IGV | 92.41 | +2.0% | -4.2% | 51 | 12 | 50▼200 120d | basing / coiling | ▼ down · neutral · diverging | software |
| ARKK | 80.25 | +1.2% | +2.6% | 53 | 18 | 50▼200 86d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | disruptive-growth / speculation |
| URA | 42.97 | -3.7% | -14.1% | 40 | 24 | 50▼200 5d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | uranium / nuclear |
| ITA | 239.06 | -0.4% | +6.9% | 52 | 24 | 50▲200 302d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | aerospace & defense |
| Regime proxies | |||||||||
| HYG | 79.71 | -0.2% | -0.8% | 47 | 16 | 50▼200 74d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · confirming | — |
| LQD | 107.46 | -1.2% | -2.4% | 35 | 19 | 50▼200 72d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | — |
| TLT | 84.47 | -1.7% | -3.7% | 38 | 19 | 50▼200 76d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | — |
| GLD | 377.01 | -0.6% | -8.2% | 43 | 29 | 50▼200 7d | breaking / downtrend | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | — |
| UUP | 28.39 | +0.3% | +2.6% | 61 | 32 | 50▲200 41d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
03yfinance · EOD 2026-07-10
Sector & Thematic Rotation
baton passing: SMH, XLK → XBI, XLI
● sector◆ themeLeadingWeakeningLaggingImproving (muted)
Rotation call
LeadersXBI · XLI
Weakening off the topSMH · XLK
Turning up6 Improving names
'Weakening' ≠ falling — SMH is still +41% above its 200-DMA. The 6-name Improving cluster is the breadth story, seen in rotation-space.
How to read: RS = each fund vs SPY; RS-Ratio 100 = the fund’s own 1y average RS, not SPY parity — >100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright. RS-Momentum >100 = that ratio improving. Window 252d · momentum lag 20d. Axes auto-scale to the day’s spread independently — read quadrant and direction of travel, not diagonal distance.
04AUM approx · yfinance · 2026-07-10
Leverage & Fragility
semis is the fragility + speculation epicenter
Fragility rank · EOD rebalance footprint
% of proxy-ETF ADV per 1% move · higher = more mechanical leveraged flow
semisrank #1 · ~6.02× median of 12 sectors · 1.4× the #2
23.6% of proxy-ETF ADV
tech
16.8% of proxy-ETF ADV
homebuilders
11.0% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-ndx
8.3% of proxy-ETF ADV
financials
8.2% of proxy-ETF ADV
china
4.6% of proxy-ETF ADV
biotech
3.2% of proxy-ETF ADV
regional-banks
2.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-spx
2.3% of proxy-ETF ADV
small-cap
1.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
gold-miners
1.1% of proxy-ETF ADV
energy
0.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
funds · AUM · ADV — all sectors
semis SOXL / SOXS · AUM $27.0B · ADV $7.3B · rebalance/1% $1.7B
tech TECL / TECS · AUM $6.2B · ADV $2.2B · rebalance/1% $373.6M
homebuilders NAIL · AUM $674.2M · ADV $367.4M · rebalance/1% $40.5M
broad-ndx TQQQ / SQQQ / QLD / QID · AUM $53.0B · ADV $32.9B · rebalance/1% $2.7B
financials FAS / FAZ · AUM $2.6B · ADV $1.9B · rebalance/1% $158.1M
china YINN / YANG · AUM $637.6M · ADV $945.1M · rebalance/1% $43.5M
biotech LABU / LABD · AUM $781.8M · ADV $1.6B · rebalance/1% $50.4M
regional-banks DPST · AUM $452.3M · ADV $1.1B · rebalance/1% $27.1M
broad-spx SPXL / SPXS / UPRO / SSO / SDS / SPXU · AUM $21.7B · ADV $43.6B · rebalance/1% $1.0B
small-cap TNA / TZA · AUM $1.6B · ADV $7.8B · rebalance/1% $111.1M
gold-miners NUGT / DUST · AUM $940.3M · ADV $2.0B · rebalance/1% $21.2M
energy ERX / ERY · AUM $257.0M · ADV $1.8B · rebalance/1% $7.0M
Speculative intensity · LETF ÷ vanilla $-volume
> 1.0× = leveraged turnover exceeds the plain ETF — a crowding thermometer.
1.0×
semis2.08×
broad-ndx0.27×
small-cap0.20×
homebuilders0.19×
biotech0.17×
tech0.12×
china0.08×
gold-miners0.07×
financials0.05×
broad-spx0.04×
regional-banks0.04×
energy0.03×
Semis is the sole breach — leveraged $-volume 2.08× the vanilla ETF; the next-highest sector is 0.27×.
Single-stock LETF froth · bull vs bear
Bullish · long
$29.9BΔ -$1.6B vs Mon Jul 6
64 funds · top 2 (MUU + TSLL) = 35.1% of side
Bearish · inverse
$300.2M
4 funds
99.6×
bull ÷ bear
All US leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs with AUM of at least $50M whose AUM the multi-source resolver can TRUST (issuer-published arbiter plus aggregator agreement); underlying-agnostic; option-income funds (YieldMax etc.) are excluded by construction. Captures ~85% of the AUM in the leveraged/inverse single-stock subset. EXCLUDED: real funds of at least $50M whose AUM cannot be trusted — no issuer file to arbitrate and Schwab/yfinance diverge, or a Schwab stale-share glitch with no arbiter (SNXX ~$3.3B plus NVDX, SNDU, ROBN, WDCX and others, ~$6.9B total). This therefore UNDER-counts the subset and never over-states. The full single-stock complex (400+ funds including option-income) is materially larger; this is NOT a census of that total.
ΔSO methodology · fund breakdown (bull · bear)
ΔSO 5-day net-creation join: 63 not in the flows universe · 4 issuer unsupported in flows — states, not errors (null carries a reason, never a fabricated flow).
MUU$6.0B · 20.2% of side
TSLL$4.4B · 14.9% of side
NVDL$3.8B · 12.8% of side
AMDL$1.3B · 4.3% of side
GGLL$1.1B · 3.6% of side
MULL$921.9M · 3.1% of side
MSFU$898.3M · 3.0% of side
TSMX$689.8M · 2.3% of side
NVDU$641.2M · 2.1% of side
METU$607.6M · 2.0% of side
CONL$572.3M · 1.9% of side
INTW$508.8M · 1.7% of side
PLTU$439.7M · 1.5% of side
SPCH$435.7M · 1.5% of side
MVLL$428.3M · 1.4% of side
AMZU$340.4M · 1.1% of side
MSTU$313.4M · 1.0% of side
IRE$306.9M · 1.0% of side
PTIR$295.6M · 1.0% of side
AVGX$294.3M · 1.0% of side
NOWL$284.5M · 1.0% of side
ORCX$245.4M · 0.8% of side
TSLT$242.2M · 0.8% of side
RKLX$236.1M · 0.8% of side
FBL$229.3M · 0.8% of side
AVL$218.4M · 0.7% of side
OKLL$191.0M · 0.6% of side
AAPU$174.4M · 0.6% of side
NBIL$170.5M · 0.6% of side
IONX$167.1M · 0.6% of side
CRWG$163.6M · 0.5% of side
DLLL$162.3M · 0.5% of side
MSTX$160.4M · 0.5% of side
SMCX$159.8M · 0.5% of side
MRVU$153.5M · 0.5% of side
CRDU$151.9M · 0.5% of side
NFXL$148.2M · 0.5% of side
MSFL$128.6M · 0.4% of side
AMUU$124.7M · 0.4% of side
UNHG$120.3M · 0.4% of side
HIMZ$117.7M · 0.4% of side
ARMG$114.6M · 0.4% of side
QBTX$110.3M · 0.4% of side
APPX$106.5M · 0.4% of side
BABX$99.7M · 0.3% of side
QCML$98.8M · 0.3% of side
SOFX$98.4M · 0.3% of side
CRCA$98.1M · 0.3% of side
LINT$96.6M · 0.3% of side
TSLR$93.8M · 0.3% of side
COHX$89.8M · 0.3% of side
RGTX$68.3M · 0.2% of side
LLYX$67.7M · 0.2% of side
MRAL$63.6M · 0.2% of side
LNOK$62.6M · 0.2% of side
IONL$62.1M · 0.2% of side
IREX$61.2M · 0.2% of side
VRTL$59.3M · 0.2% of side
APLX$56.4M · 0.2% of side
TSMU$55.4M · 0.2% of side
RDTL$55.4M · 0.2% of side
TEMT$52.6M · 0.2% of side
NVOX$50.1M · 0.2% of side
CRWL$49.9M · 0.2% of side
TSLQ$111.4M · 37.1% of side
TSLS$68.3M · 22.8% of side
MUD$66.7M · 22.2% of side
NVD$53.8M · 17.9% of side
delta_so_direction is a best-effort join to the flows feed (sign of 5-day net creations). null carries a reason (flow-accruing / issuer-unsupported-in-flows / not-in-flows-universe / flows-feed-absent) — never fabricated. Total assets in leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs, split bullish (long) vs bearish (inverse). A gauge of how much capital sits in single-stock leveraged bets; AUM is price-sensitive, so a rising tape lifts the level even without new creations (read alongside flows). Descriptive context, not a buy/sell signal.
Descriptive cross-sectional rank — not a forced-move prediction.
Read as: A within-complex severity indicator relative to the proxy ETF's own liquidity, and a DIRECTIONAL cross-sector ordering — not a calibrated forced-move or market-impact prediction.
Denominator is a proxy: The denominator is a PROXY, not the venue that absorbs the rebalance. LETF rebalance hedges execute in the underlying basket / index futures / swaps, NOT on the vanilla ETF's tape. Dividing by the vanilla ETF's ADV$ therefore biases the cross-sector RANK by how liquid each proxy ETF happens to be (a thin proxy inflates its complex's rank). A calibrated market-impact denominator would use the underlying basket/futures ADV, which is not wired here.
methodology & literature caveat
Fragility = estimated leveraged-ETF end-of-day rebalance flow per 1% index move, as a share of the underlying vanilla ETF’s ADV — a cross-sectional rank, not an absolute forced-flow forecast. Cross-sector rankings only — not absolute forced-move predictors. Cheng & Madhavan (2009) documented a statistically real EOD rebalancing effect; a 2024 survey of the literature contests its economic significance. This feed is descriptive market-environment context, not a buy/sell signal.
05issuer / yfinance · as-of 2026-07-05
What you actually own
Hidden mega-cap / AI-capex concentration
Cap-weighting means sheer size — not conviction — sets the weights. The mega-cap AI-capex complex (hyperscalers, AI semiconductors, mega-cap tech) sits atop most funds’ holdings, so a fund’s LABEL — “Consumer Discretionary”, “Communication Services”, “broad market” — can quietly resolve to the same dozen names. Each bar is the share of the fund — % of fund weight — sitting in that complex, counted from the fund’s disclosed top-10 holdings only (a floor on the true exposure).
Carries the AI-capex mega-caps
XLY State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETFAMZN 27.6% · TSLA 20.0%
47.6%
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETFNVDA 15.2% · TSM 9.4%
47.2%
XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFNVDA 13.1% · MSFT 8.5%
41.4%
QQQ Invesco QQQ TrustNVDA 8.2% · MSFT 5.3%
40.2%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustNVDA 7.9% · MSFT 5.1%
32.2%
XLC State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETFMETA 14.0% · GOOGL 9.8%
31.6%
IGV iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETFORCL 10.0% · MSFT 8.0%
18.0%
ARKK ARK Innovation ETFTSLA 10.3% · AMD 5.5%
15.8%
DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF TrustMSFT 5.4%
5.4%
Genuine diversifiers (<5% of fund weight · top-10 floor)
18 funds at ~0% in the top-10 window — incl. FXI · ITA · IWM …
show all 18
FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF
0.0%
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
0.0%
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF
0.0%
KRE State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
0.0%
KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
0.0%
MSOS AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
0.0%
TAN Invesco Solar ETF
0.0%
URA Global X Uranium ETF
0.0%
XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
0.0%
XHB State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
0.0%
XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLE State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLI State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLP State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLRE State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLU State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
bond / FX / commodity funds (GLD · HYG · LQD · TLT · UUP) excluded — 0% AI-equity there is a category fact, not a diversification finding.
Look-through = the % of the fund (by weight) sitting in the AI-capex complex, counted from the top-10 disclosed holdings only — a floor (near-complete for the mega-caps, since they ARE the top holdings; positions below the top-10 are not counted). Descriptive: a fund’s own disclosed holdings, not advice.
Glossary — the shorthand this page leans on
- contango / backwardation
- the VIX term-structure shapes: near-term volatility priced below longer-dated (contango — the usual state) vs above it (backwardation — a stress marker).
- ADV
- average daily $-volume of a fund's shares — the liquidity yardstick §04's rebalance footprints are measured against.
- LETF
- leveraged ETF — delivers a daily multiple (2× / 3×, long or inverse) of its index and must rebalance toward the close every session.
- RS (relative strength)
- a fund's price divided by SPY's, indexed so 100 = the fund's own 1y average — above 100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright.
- diffusion
- the share of tracked equity names above a moving average — §02's participation gauge.
- golden / death cross
- the 50-day average crossing above (golden) or below (death) the 200-day — a slow-moving trend-change marker.
- percentile windows
- every “%ile” on this page ranks today against the stated lookback only (1y unless labelled otherwise), never against all history.
- signal strength
- a 0–1 engine score for how strongly a §00·5 convergence or tension holds: corroboration breadth (how many legs agree) for convergences, a rule-specific score for tensions (some rules scale with the reading, others assign a fixed weight) — not a probability or confidence interval.