ETFs Are The Market
Market-environment intelligence from the ETF tape — macro · sector · thematic
00
Market Read
mixed / transitional — feeds not aligned (complacent-calm tape, net risk vote +1).
mixed +1
of 5 votes: IWM/SPY 0 · XLY/XLP -1 · credit +1 · havens 0 · vol-term +1
VIX 14.9 in contango; cross-asset risk vote +1 (mixed). Breadth appears neutral — IWM/SPY at the 57th percentile, 64% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day, HY OAS at the 2th percentile. Leadership rotating from decelerating SMH toward MSOS, XBI, IGV.
Credit appetiteSOLID
2nd %ile
HY OAS 263bps at the 2th percentile of its window — credit calm — spreads near window tights. HY/IG price ratio confirms.
Volatility: complacent-calmSOLID
14.9
VIX 14.9 with vix/vix3m 0.85 (contango) — complacent-calm tape.
Breadth: neutral breadthSOLID
57th %ile
IWM/SPY at the 57th percentile, 64% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day — neutral breadth.
KWEB (China internet)SOLID
-15.7% vs 200DMA
KWEB: RRG Lagging (rs_ratio 72), -16% vs 200DMA — subordinated single-name read.
What changed · vs Fri Aug 28HY OAS %ile +1.4ppRSP/SPY %ile -6.0ppIWM/SPY %ile -5.6ppS&P 500 > 200-DMA -3.0ppVIX +0.49froth bull $ +$481.0M
00·5
Where the Feeds Agree
Cross-feed convergences (confirm) and tensions (caution) no single feed shows
Confirm
semis: fragility node
SMH relative strength vs SPY, own ~1y baseline = 100 115.7SMH momentum of that relative strength (RRG y-axis) 97.22SMH RRG quadrant (Leading/Weakening/Lagging/Improving) Weakeningsemis estimated LETF rebalance flow, % of the sector's vanilla proxy-ETF ADV 0.3318semis fragility rank (1 = most mechanically loaded) 1semis leveraged-ETF vs vanilla $-volume ratio (crowding gauge) 2.425semis speculative-intensity rank (1 = most crowded) 1
feeds: leverage · rotation · signal strength 0.8 of 1.0 max
Tension D4
Calm surface / crowded underneath
placid index but semis fragile (rank<=2) and crowded (spec 2.42x)
VIX index level 14.92semis leveraged-ETF vs vanilla $-volume ratio (crowding gauge) 2.425semis fragility rank (1 = most mechanically loaded) 1
feeds: regime · leverage · signal strength 0.7 of 1.0 max
01yfinance · EOD 2026-08-31
State of the Tape
complacent-calm, mixed, neutral breadth — havens quiet
Vol
VIX
14.9indexΔ +0.49 vs Fri Aug 28
contango / calm
VIX/VIX3M 0.851 · VIX9D/VIX 0.827
Credit
HY OAS · FRED / ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads
263bps · 2nd %ileΔ +3 bps vs Fri Aug 28Δ +1.4pp vs Fri Aug 28
credit calm — spreads near window tights
methodology & data vintage
percentile window: since 2023-09 (FRED serves ICE BofA OAS as a trailing ~3y window) · -12 bps/60d
HY/IG price ratio (HYG/LQD) — a credit-appetite proxy: 98th %ile · 10y (confirming)
OAS as of 2026-08-31 · FRED OAS observations are EOD and typically lag the equity tape by one session
Breadth · hero
IWM / SPY
57th%ile · 1y rangeΔ -5.6pp vs Fri Aug 28
breadth neutral · -2.0%/20d
full-history rank · 15th %ile · 10y
Small-caps leading large — IWM/SPY at the 57th percentile of its 1y range — neutral breadth.
Dollar
UUP
+1.0% /60d
dollar steady
Havens
GLD
-0.7%/60d
haven bid / gold firm
Gold flat over 60d with the dollar soft — no strong haven signal.
XLY/XLP offense/defense · 89th %ile · 10y · mixed consumer posture · XLY is itself 40.3% AI-capex — see §05TLT rates · -3.5%/60d · rates range-boundmixed risk posture — contango — gold bid — credit calm
Primary-market flows · 5-day net creations / redemptions
XLF-$1.2B
SOXL+$609.7M
XLI-$513.1M
XLE-$358.2M
TQQQ-$305.9M
XLV+$279.0M
XLU+$130.3M
XLK-$125.1M
SPXL+$113.8M
XLY-$111.2M
XLC+$61.6M
SOXS+$49.1M
LABU-$48.3M
XLRE+$44.7M
TSLL-$37.8M
SQQQ+$34.7M
XLP+$29.8M
XLB+$20.3M
ERX-$15.5M
NAIL+$15.1M
YINN-$14.8M
TZA-$14.2M
LABD+$8.8M
TNA+$3.8M
SPXS+$3.6M
ERY+$1.3M
DPST+$202K
TECS+$138K
TECL+$0
YANG+$0
5 legs have no free NAV/shares source (defiance / graniteshares / t-rex / tradr) — a structural absence, not an outage.
flows as-of 2026-09-01 · issuer NAV/shares (T-1: freshest value is prior close)
methodology · masks · caveats
coverage 30/30 legs · grade DIRECTIONAL · implemented issuers: ProShares 2 · Direxion 17 · SSGA sectors 11 · unsupported 5
11 split-suspect day(s) masked (|ΔSO| > 25% — a split/restatement guard; a genuine giant-flow day is masked too):
LABD — 2026-08-20: |dSO|=25.3% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
SOXS — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
SPXS — 2026-08-03: |dSO|=38.3% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TECS — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TSLL — 2026-08-03: |dSO|=27.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TZA — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLK — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.7% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLE — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.8% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLY — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=95.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLU — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=101.5% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLB — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=98.6% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
- T-1 staleness: issuer NAV/shares strike after the close — freshest value is prior close.
- In-kind creations/redemptions are primary-market activity, not screen pressure.
- Delta-SO flow is a lower bound on positioning change (internalized AP activity nets out).
- Days with |delta-SO| > 25% are masked as suspect (split/restatement guard); a genuine giant flow day is also masked — inspect errors[] for masked rows.
- Direxion flows use close price as NAV proxy (issuer publishes no NAV in the holdings CSV).
- No percentile/z-score claims: cross-fund flow history is too short for most funds (later task).
Index calendar · upcomingtriple-witching / S&P rebalance in 18d 2026-09-18Russell reconstitution in 298d 2027-06-25rule-derived from 2026-08-31: 3rd-Friday expirations · last-Friday-of-June Russell recon
02yfinance · EOD 2026-08-31
Technical Board
broad uptrend, cooling near-term
Constituent breadth · S&P 500 members vs their own 200/50-DMA
64% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day (317/499 eligible of 503 · broad)Δ -3.0pp vs Fri Aug 28 · 47% above 50-day (233/500)
64% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average — broad participation
coverage gap 2 of 503 members not measured (short history / data gap) —
show 2
EA · EQR
RSP/SPY · 57th %ile · -0.2%/20d · +2.7%/60dΔ -6.0pp vs Fri Aug 28QQQE/QQQ · 86th %ile · +0.4%/20d · +3.8%/60dequal-weight ÷ cap-weight — rising = the average member leading
60 sessions · latest n 499/503 · backseries computed against current membership — historical sessions carry mild survivorship (index adds/removals inside the window, a few names of ~503); the latest reading is clean
constituent breadth as of 2026-08-31 · grade SOLID · direct measurement (no fund proxy)
ETF-proxy read (confirming) · 68% of tracked equity ETFs above their 200-day (17/25 — regime proxies excluded) · 32% above 20-day
Participation is broad (64% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day) with no name stretched more than +25% above trend.
Signal by exception · 4 flagged
XLIRSI 34 · oversoldXLURSI 32 · oversoldITARSI 33 · oversoldURAbasing → turning up
Board pills vs the hero read: 4 of 4 “Broad market” pills read “pulling back in uptrend” — a per-fund price-trend vote (ADX-gated) — while the §00 hero nets cross-asset risk votes (mixed +1). Different questions; disagreement is by design.
Show full board — all 30 names, all columns
| Ticker | Price | vs20 | vs200 | RSI | ADX | 50/200 | State | Read (trend · mom · agree) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad market | |||||||||
| SPY | 767.05 | -0.3% | +8.0% | 54 | 15 | 50▲200 293d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| QQQ | 716.76 | -0.3% | +9.3% | 52 | 12 | 50▲200 298d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| IWM | 293.93 | -2.1% | +8.2% | 42 | 16 | 50▲200 268d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · soft · diverging | — |
| DIA | 531.57 | -0.8% | +6.9% | 50 | 14 | 50▲200 284d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | — |
| Sectors (SPDR) | |||||||||
| XLK | 186.50 | +0.3% | +16.9% | 54 | 13 | 50▲200 93d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLF | 57.71 | -0.2% | +8.1% | 54 | 24 | 50▲200 37d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLV | 170.54 | +0.5% | +10.0% | 55 | 29 | 50▲200 38d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| XLE | 63.96 | +4.0% | +17.5% | 68 | 26 | 50▲200 241d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| XLI | 175.13 | -4.1% | +2.8% | 34 | 20 | 50▲200 300d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · soft · diverging | — |
| XLY | 116.59 | -1.1% | -0.3% | 49 | 13 | 50▼200 42d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLP | 84.98 | -0.7% | +2.2% | 48 | 15 | 50▲200 141d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLU | 42.23 | -3.0% | -5.5% | 32 | 15 | 50▼200 2d | basing / coiling | ▼ down · soft · confirming | — |
| XLB | 52.69 | -0.2% | +5.6% | 52 | 15 | 50▲200 276d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLRE | 44.11 | -1.7% | +2.6% | 39 | 11 | 50▲200 126d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · soft · diverging | — |
| XLC | 111.46 | -0.2% | -2.2% | 51 | 13 | 50▼200 73d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| Themes & speculative | |||||||||
| SMH | 556.63 | -2.3% | +17.6% | 46 | 14 | 50▲200 294d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | semiconductors / AI capex |
| KWEB | 25.81 | -5.2% | -15.7% | 38 | 16 | 50▼200 149d | range / mixed | ▼ down · soft · confirming | China internet |
| MSOS | 4.95 | +6.5% | +12.9% | 61 | 18 | 50▲200 62d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | US cannabis (regulatory catalyst) |
| TAN | 47.57 | -6.0% | -13.7% | 36 | 22 | 50▼200 9d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | solar |
| XHB | 102.81 | -4.4% | -3.9% | 38 | 13 | 50▲200 23d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | homebuilders |
| XBI | 162.50 | +0.9% | +20.9% | 54 | 23 | 50▲200 250d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | biotech |
| IGV | 109.98 | +5.9% | +17.4% | 69 | 28 | 50▲200 9d | trending up | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | software |
| ARKK | 85.57 | +4.3% | +11.5% | 59 | 26 | 50▲200 35d | trending up | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | disruptive-growth / speculation |
| URA | 45.51 | +0.7% | -6.1% | 53 | 21 | 50▼200 41d | basing → turning up | ▼ down · neutral · diverging | uranium / nuclear |
| ITA | 228.35 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 33 | 23 | 50▲200 300d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | aerospace & defense |
| Regime proxies | |||||||||
| HYG | 79.81 | +0.2% | -0.4% | 55 | 13 | 50▼200 110d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| LQD | 106.21 | -0.1% | -2.7% | 46 | 17 | 50▼200 108d | basing / coiling | ▼ down · neutral · confirming | — |
| TLT | 82.52 | +0.0% | -4.5% | 46 | 17 | 50▼200 112d | basing / coiling | ▼ down · neutral · confirming | — |
| GLD | 408.42 | +0.4% | -1.6% | 54 | 28 | 50▼200 43d | breaking / downtrend | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| UUP | 28.12 | +0.2% | +1.4% | 50 | 22 | 50▲200 77d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
03yfinance · EOD 2026-08-31
Sector & Thematic Rotation
baton passing: SMH → MSOS, XBI, IGV
● sector◆ themeLeadingWeakeningLaggingImproving (muted)
Rotation call
LeadersMSOS · XBI · IGV · XLE · XLK · XLV
Weakening off the topSMH
Turning up6 Improving names
'Weakening' ≠ falling — SMH is still +18% above its 200-DMA.
How to read: RS = each fund vs SPY; RS-Ratio 100 = the fund’s own 1y average RS, not SPY parity — >100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright. RS-Momentum >100 = that ratio improving. Window 252d · momentum lag 20d. Axes auto-scale to the day’s spread independently — read quadrant and direction of travel, not diagonal distance.
04AUM approx · yfinance · 2026-08-31
Leverage & Fragility
semis is the fragility + speculation epicenter
Fragility rank · EOD rebalance footprint
% of proxy-ETF ADV per 1% move · higher = more mechanical leveraged flow
semisrank #1 · ~5.17× median of 12 sectors · 1.1× the #2
33.2% of proxy-ETF ADV
tech
29.9% of proxy-ETF ADV
homebuilders
18.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-ndx
11.5% of proxy-ETF ADV
financials
9.9% of proxy-ETF ADV
china
9.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-spx
3.5% of proxy-ETF ADV
biotech
3.3% of proxy-ETF ADV
regional-banks
2.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
small-cap
2.1% of proxy-ETF ADV
gold-miners
1.3% of proxy-ETF ADV
energy
0.5% of proxy-ETF ADV
funds · AUM · ADV — all sectors
semis SOXL / SOXS · AUM $20.4B · ADV $3.9B · rebalance/1% $1.3B
tech TECL / TECS · AUM $5.9B · ADV $1.2B · rebalance/1% $359.4M
homebuilders NAIL · AUM $532.8M · ADV $173.8M · rebalance/1% $32.0M
broad-ndx TQQQ / SQQQ / QLD / QID · AUM $52.5B · ADV $23.4B · rebalance/1% $2.7B
financials FAS / FAZ · AUM $2.5B · ADV $1.6B · rebalance/1% $155.9M
china YINN / YANG · AUM $757.1M · ADV $550.4M · rebalance/1% $51.5M
broad-spx SPXL / SPXS / UPRO / SSO / SDS / SPXU · AUM $22.3B · ADV $29.8B · rebalance/1% $1.0B
biotech LABU / LABD · AUM $669.6M · ADV $1.4B · rebalance/1% $45.3M
regional-banks DPST · AUM $339.5M · ADV $849.2M · rebalance/1% $20.4M
small-cap TNA / TZA · AUM $1.5B · ADV $5.0B · rebalance/1% $103.5M
gold-miners NUGT / DUST · AUM $1.4B · ADV $2.5B · rebalance/1% $33.1M
energy ERX / ERY · AUM $281.3M · ADV $1.6B · rebalance/1% $7.3M
Speculative intensity · LETF ÷ vanilla $-volume
> 1.0× = leveraged turnover exceeds the plain ETF — a crowding thermometer.
1.0×
semis2.42×
homebuilders0.28×
broad-ndx0.26×
biotech0.18×
tech0.11×
china0.09×
small-cap0.08×
gold-miners0.08×
broad-spx0.05×
financials0.04×
regional-banks0.04×
energy0.03×
Semis is the sole breach — leveraged $-volume 2.42× the vanilla ETF; the next-highest sector is 0.28×.
Single-stock LETF froth · bull vs bear
Bullish · long
$21.7BΔ +$481.0M vs Fri Aug 28
55 funds · top 2 (MUU + TSLL) = 35.4% of side
Bearish · inverse
$344.0M
5 funds
63.0×
bull ÷ bear
All US leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs with AUM of at least $50M whose AUM the multi-source resolver can TRUST (issuer-published arbiter plus aggregator agreement); underlying-agnostic; option-income funds (YieldMax etc.) are excluded by construction. Captures ~85% of the AUM in the leveraged/inverse single-stock subset. EXCLUDED: real funds of at least $50M whose AUM cannot be trusted — no issuer file to arbitrate and Schwab/yfinance diverge, or a Schwab stale-share glitch with no arbiter (SNXX ~$3.3B plus NVDX, SNDU, ROBN, WDCX and others, ~$6.9B total). This therefore UNDER-counts the subset and never over-states. The full single-stock complex (400+ funds including option-income) is materially larger; this is NOT a census of that total.
ΔSO methodology · fund breakdown (bull · bear)
ΔSO 5-day net-creation join: 56 not in the flows universe · 3 issuer unsupported in flows — states, not errors (null carries a reason, never a fabricated flow).
MUU$3.9B · 17.8% of side
TSLL$3.8B · 17.6% of side
NVDL$3.6B · 16.7% of side
GGLL$924.3M · 4.3% of side
AMDL$904.9M · 4.2% of side
MSFU$578.5M · 2.7% of side
TSMX$562.1M · 2.6% of side
NVDU$533.3M · 2.5% of side
MULL$515.0M · 2.4% of side
PLTU$496.8M · 2.3% of side
METU$475.5M · 2.2% of side
INTW$291.5M · 1.3% of side
AMZU$277.7M · 1.3% of side
MSTX$276.8M · 1.3% of side
IRE$239.0M · 1.1% of side
ORCX$236.8M · 1.1% of side
AVL$220.2M · 1.0% of side
LITX$208.3M · 1.0% of side
AVGX$192.6M · 0.9% of side
NEBX$184.1M · 0.8% of side
BEX$177.5M · 0.8% of side
NBIL$176.9M · 0.8% of side
FBL$171.6M · 0.8% of side
AAPU$169.2M · 0.8% of side
SMCX$161.4M · 0.7% of side
RKLX$155.1M · 0.7% of side
NFXL$152.5M · 0.7% of side
TSLT$151.5M · 0.7% of side
CRCA$147.9M · 0.7% of side
IONX$144.5M · 0.7% of side
OKLL$132.4M · 0.6% of side
MRVU$109.9M · 0.5% of side
DLLL$109.8M · 0.5% of side
CRWG$109.3M · 0.5% of side
COHX$101.0M · 0.5% of side
CRDU$88.9M · 0.4% of side
UNHG$72.3M · 0.3% of side
QBTX$69.7M · 0.3% of side
TSLR$68.8M · 0.3% of side
AMUU$68.8M · 0.3% of side
LINT$63.3M · 0.3% of side
IONL$59.9M · 0.3% of side
SOFX$59.7M · 0.3% of side
TSMU$59.5M · 0.3% of side
HIMZ$56.9M · 0.3% of side
LABX$56.0M · 0.3% of side
ARMG$54.8M · 0.3% of side
QCML$50.3M · 0.2% of side
IREX$47.0M · 0.2% of side
RGTX$43.6M · 0.2% of side
VRTL$42.8M · 0.2% of side
MRAL$42.3M · 0.2% of side
LLYX$41.1M · 0.2% of side
NVOX$35.3M · 0.2% of side
LNOK$27.2M · 0.1% of side
TSLQ$104.0M · 30.2% of side
MSTZ$97.1M · 28.2% of side
TSLS$59.4M · 17.3% of side
NVD$55.5M · 16.1% of side
MUD$28.0M · 8.1% of side
delta_so_direction is a best-effort join to the flows feed (sign of 5-day net creations). null carries a reason (flow-accruing / issuer-unsupported-in-flows / not-in-flows-universe / flows-feed-absent) — never fabricated. Total assets in leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs, split bullish (long) vs bearish (inverse). A gauge of how much capital sits in single-stock leveraged bets; AUM is price-sensitive, so a rising tape lifts the level even without new creations (read alongside flows). Descriptive context, not a buy/sell signal.
Descriptive cross-sectional rank — not a forced-move prediction.
Read as: A within-complex severity indicator relative to the proxy ETF's own liquidity, and a DIRECTIONAL cross-sector ordering — not a calibrated forced-move or market-impact prediction.
Denominator is a proxy: The denominator is a PROXY, not the venue that absorbs the rebalance. LETF rebalance hedges execute in the underlying basket / index futures / swaps, NOT on the vanilla ETF's tape. Dividing by the vanilla ETF's ADV$ therefore biases the cross-sector RANK by how liquid each proxy ETF happens to be (a thin proxy inflates its complex's rank). A calibrated market-impact denominator would use the underlying basket/futures ADV, which is not wired here.
methodology & literature caveat
Fragility = estimated leveraged-ETF end-of-day rebalance flow per 1% index move, as a share of the underlying vanilla ETF’s ADV — a cross-sectional rank, not an absolute forced-flow forecast. Cross-sector rankings only — not absolute forced-move predictors. Cheng & Madhavan (2009) documented a statistically real EOD rebalancing effect; a 2024 survey of the literature contests its economic significance. This feed is descriptive market-environment context, not a buy/sell signal.
05issuer / yfinance · as-of 2026-09-01
What you actually own
Hidden mega-cap / AI-capex concentration
Cap-weighting means sheer size — not conviction — sets the weights. The mega-cap AI-capex complex (hyperscalers, AI semiconductors, mega-cap tech) sits atop most funds’ holdings, so a fund’s LABEL — “Consumer Discretionary”, “Communication Services”, “broad market” — can quietly resolve to the same dozen names. Each bar is the share of the fund — % of fund weight — sitting in that complex, counted from the fund’s disclosed top-10 holdings only (a floor on the true exposure).
Carries the AI-capex mega-caps
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETFNVDA 20.8% · TSM 9.6%
48.0%
XLY State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETFAMZN 25.6% · TSLA 14.7%
40.3%
QQQ Invesco QQQ TrustNVDA 8.0% · MSFT 5.7%
38.8%
XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFNVDA 13.8% · MSFT 9.8%
36.6%
XLC State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETFMETA 16.6% · GOOGL 11.0%
36.4%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustNVDA 7.5% · MSFT 5.4%
27.7%
IGV iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETFMSFT 9.6% · ORCL 5.3%
14.9%
ARKK ARK Innovation ETFTSLA 9.7% · AMD 4.0%
13.7%
DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF TrustMSFT 5.3% · GOOGL 4.0%
9.3%
Genuine diversifiers (<5% of fund weight · top-10 floor)
18 funds at ~0% in the top-10 window — incl. FXI · ITA · IWM …
show all 18
FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF
0.0%
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
0.0%
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF
0.0%
KRE State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
0.0%
KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
0.0%
MSOS AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
0.0%
TAN Invesco Solar ETF
0.0%
URA Global X Uranium ETF
0.0%
XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
0.0%
XHB State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
0.0%
XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLE State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLI State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLP State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLRE State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLU State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
bond / FX / commodity funds (GLD · HYG · LQD · TLT · UUP) excluded — 0% AI-equity there is a category fact, not a diversification finding.
Look-through = the % of the fund (by weight) sitting in the AI-capex complex, counted from the top-10 disclosed holdings only — a floor (near-complete for the mega-caps, since they ARE the top holdings; positions below the top-10 are not counted). Descriptive: a fund’s own disclosed holdings, not advice.
Glossary — the shorthand this page leans on
- contango / backwardation
- the VIX term-structure shapes: near-term volatility priced below longer-dated (contango — the usual state) vs above it (backwardation — a stress marker).
- ADV
- average daily $-volume of a fund's shares — the liquidity yardstick §04's rebalance footprints are measured against.
- LETF
- leveraged ETF — delivers a daily multiple (2× / 3×, long or inverse) of its index and must rebalance toward the close every session.
- RS (relative strength)
- a fund's price divided by SPY's, indexed so 100 = the fund's own 1y average — above 100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright.
- diffusion
- the share of tracked equity names above a moving average — §02's participation gauge.
- golden / death cross
- the 50-day average crossing above (golden) or below (death) the 200-day — a slow-moving trend-change marker.
- percentile windows
- every “%ile” on this page ranks today against the stated lookback only (1y unless labelled otherwise), never against all history.
- signal strength
- a 0–1 engine score for how strongly a §00·5 convergence or tension holds: corroboration breadth (how many legs agree) for convergences, a rule-specific score for tensions (some rules scale with the reading, others assign a fixed weight) — not a probability or confidence interval.