ETFs Are The Market
Market-environment intelligence from the ETF tape — macro · sector · thematic
00
Market Read
calm, broadening risk-on — caution node: semis
risk-on +2
of 5 votes: IWM/SPY +1 · XLY/XLP -1 · credit +1 · havens 0 · vol-term +1
VIX 15.1 in contango; cross-asset risk vote +2 (risk-on). Breadth broadening — IWM/SPY at the 86th percentile, 72% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day, HY OAS at the 8th percentile. Leadership rotating from decelerating SMH toward XBI, ARKK, MSOS. The one caution node: semis — see the ranked reads.
Credit appetiteSOLID
8th %ile
HY OAS 270bps at the 8th percentile of its window — credit calm — spreads near window tights. HY/IG price ratio confirms.
Breadth: broadeningSOLID
86th %ile
IWM/SPY at the 86th percentile, 72% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day — broadening.
Volatility: calmSOLID
15.1
VIX 15.1 with vix/vix3m 0.82 (contango) — calm tape.
Leadership / rotationSOLID
6 names
leadership rotating from decelerating SMH toward XBI, ARKK, MSOS.
What changed · vs Wed Aug 19New read: Froth thermometerTension appeared: Rotation vs trendHY OAS %ile -4.3ppfroth bull $ -$930.2MRSP/SPY %ile +2.4ppS&P 500 > 200-DMA +1.8ppIWM/SPY %ile -2.0ppVIX +0.24
00·5
Where the Feeds Agree
Cross-feed convergences (confirm) and tensions (caution) no single feed shows
Confirm
semis: fragility node
SMH relative strength vs SPY, own ~1y baseline = 100 117.8SMH momentum of that relative strength (RRG y-axis) 92.93SMH RRG quadrant (Leading/Weakening/Lagging/Improving) Weakeningsemis estimated LETF rebalance flow, % of the sector's vanilla proxy-ETF ADV 0.2267semis fragility rank (1 = most mechanically loaded) 2semis leveraged-ETF vs vanilla $-volume ratio (crowding gauge) 2.043semis speculative-intensity rank (1 = most crowded) 1
feeds: leverage · rotation · signal strength 0.8 of 1.0 max
Confirm
risk appetite widening
hy OAS percentile within its own trailing window 8th %ilehy 60-session change in the spread, bps -4hy option-adjusted spread level, bps 270IWM/SPY 1y percentile of the ratio's own range 86th %ile% of eligible members above their 200-day 72.5count of RRG names in the Improving quadrant 5
feeds: breadth · regime · signal strength 0.5 of 1.0 max
Tension D4
Calm surface / crowded underneath
placid index but semis fragile (rank<=2) and crowded (spec 2.04x)
VIX index level 15.13semis leveraged-ETF vs vanilla $-volume ratio (crowding gauge) 2.043semis fragility rank (1 = most mechanically loaded) 2
feeds: regime · leverage · signal strength 0.7 of 1.0 max
Tension D6
Rotation vs trend
XLF Lagging on RS but technically strong
XLF RRG quadrant (Leading/Weakening/Lagging/Improving) LaggingXLF trend regime: ADX-filtered 50/200 cross (up/down/ranging) up
feeds: rotation · technical-board · signal strength 0.5 of 1.0 max
01yfinance · EOD 2026-08-21
State of the Tape
calm, risk-on, broadening — havens quiet
Vol
VIX
15.1indexΔ +0.24 vs Wed Aug 19
contango / calm
VIX/VIX3M 0.818 · VIX9D/VIX 0.831
Credit
HY OAS · FRED / ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads
270bps · 8th %ileΔ -3 bps vs Wed Aug 19Δ -4.3pp vs Wed Aug 19
credit calm — spreads near window tights
methodology & data vintage
percentile window: since 2023-08 (FRED serves ICE BofA OAS as a trailing ~3y window) · -4 bps/60d
HY/IG price ratio (HYG/LQD) — a credit-appetite proxy: 99th %ile · 10y (confirming)
OAS as of 2026-08-21 · FRED OAS observations are EOD and typically lag the equity tape by one session
Breadth · hero
IWM / SPY
86th%ile · 1y rangeΔ -2.0pp vs Wed Aug 19
breadth broadening · -0.6%/20d
full-history rank · 20th %ile · 10y
Small-caps leading large — IWM/SPY at the 86th percentile of its 1y range — broadening.
Dollar
UUP
+0.5% /60d
dollar softening
Havens
GLD
+3.6%/60d
haven bid / gold firm
Gold flat over 60d with the dollar soft — no strong haven signal.
XLY/XLP offense/defense · 89th %ile · 10y · defensive rotation · XLY is itself 40.3% AI-capex — see §05TLT rates · -3.8%/60d · rates rising / duration under pressurerisk-on tape — contango — dollar softening — rates rising — gold bid — credit calm
Primary-market flows · 5-day net creations / redemptions
XLF-$1.6B
SOXS-$415.4M
XLV-$411.7M
TQQQ+$290.1M
XLE+$280.8M
XLY-$224.3M
SOXL-$203.2M
XLRE-$172.3M
XLU-$154.8M
SPXL-$100.1M
XLI-$97.3M
XLB-$94.0M
XLC-$72.9M
TNA-$66.2M
XLP+$25.2M
LABU-$15.9M
TECL-$15.1M
YINN-$13.5M
XLK+$8.1M
NAIL+$7.9M
YANG+$7.2M
TSLL+$5.6M
ERX+$5.4M
LABD+$4.5M
SPXS+$3.5M
ERY+$3.2M
TECS-$3.1M
TZA-$2.1M
DPST-$826K
SQQQ-$69K
5 legs have no free NAV/shares source (defiance / graniteshares / t-rex / tradr) — a structural absence, not an outage.
flows as-of 2026-08-24 · issuer NAV/shares (T-1: freshest value is prior close)
methodology · masks · caveats
coverage 30/30 legs · grade DIRECTIONAL · implemented issuers: ProShares 2 · Direxion 17 · SSGA sectors 11 · unsupported 5
11 split-suspect day(s) masked(|ΔSO| > 25% — a split/restatement guard; a genuine giant-flow day is masked too):
LABD — 2026-08-20: |dSO|=25.3% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
SOXS — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
SPXS — 2026-08-03: |dSO|=38.3% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TECS — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TSLL — 2026-08-03: |dSO|=27.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
TZA — 2026-07-15: |dSO|=90.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLK — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.7% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLE — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=99.8% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLY — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=95.0% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLU — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=101.5% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
XLB — 2025-12-05: |dSO|=98.6% of SO (> 25%) — flow masked
- T-1 staleness: issuer NAV/shares strike after the close — freshest value is prior close.
- In-kind creations/redemptions are primary-market activity, not screen pressure.
- Delta-SO flow is a lower bound on positioning change (internalized AP activity nets out).
- Days with |delta-SO| > 25% are masked as suspect (split/restatement guard); a genuine giant flow day is also masked — inspect errors[] for masked rows.
- Direxion flows use close price as NAV proxy (issuer publishes no NAV in the holdings CSV).
- No percentile/z-score claims: cross-fund flow history is too short for most funds (later task).
Index calendar · upcomingmonthly OpEx in 0d 2026-08-21triple-witching / S&P rebalance in 28d 2026-09-18Russell reconstitution in 308d 2027-06-25rule-derived from 2026-08-21: 3rd-Friday expirations · last-Friday-of-June Russell recon
02yfinance · EOD 2026-08-21
Technical Board
broad uptrend, cooling near-term
Constituent breadth · S&P 500 members vs their own 200/50-DMA
72% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day (362/499 eligible of 503 · broad)Δ +1.8pp vs Wed Aug 19 · 60% above 50-day (301/500)
72% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average — broad participation
coverage gap 2 of 503 members not measured (short history / data gap) —
show 2
EA · EQR
RSP/SPY · 74th %ile · +0.2%/20d · +4.7%/60dΔ +2.4pp vs Wed Aug 19QQQE/QQQ · 98th %ile · +2.0%/20d · +7.0%/60dequal-weight ÷ cap-weight — rising = the average member leading
60 sessions · latest n 499/503 · backseries computed against current membership — historical sessions carry mild survivorship (index adds/removals inside the window, a few names of ~503); the latest reading is clean
constituent breadth as of 2026-08-21 · grade SOLID · direct measurement (no fund proxy)
ETF-proxy read (confirming) · 76% of tracked equity ETFs above their 200-day (19/25 — regime proxies excluded) · 60% above 20-day
Participation is broad (72% of S&P 500 members above their 200-day) with no name stretched more than +25% above trend.
Signal by exception · 3 flagged
XLERSI 72 · overboughtXLURSI 33 · oversoldURAbasing → turning up
Board pills vs the hero read: 3 of 4 “Broad market” pills read “range / mixed” — a per-fund price-trend vote (ADX-gated) — while the §00 hero nets cross-asset risk votes (risk-on +2). Different questions; disagreement is by design.
Show full board — all 30 names, all columns
| Ticker | Price | vs20 | vs200 | RSI | ADX | 50/200 | State | Read (trend · mom · agree) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad market | |||||||||
| SPY | 765.72 | +0.4% | +8.2% | 54 | 19 | 50▲200 287d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| QQQ | 713.44 | +0.6% | +9.3% | 50 | 14 | 50▲200 292d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| IWM | 299.96 | +0.5% | +11.1% | 53 | 14 | 50▲200 262d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| DIA | 532.22 | -0.1% | +7.4% | 52 | 16 | 50▲200 278d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| Sectors (SPDR) | |||||||||
| XLK | 183.31 | +0.3% | +15.7% | 50 | 14 | 50▲200 87d | range / mixed | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLF | 57.48 | -0.1% | +8.0% | 55 | 26 | 50▲200 31d | trending up | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLV | 174.62 | +4.5% | +13.2% | 68 | 28 | 50▲200 32d | trending up | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| XLE | 63.64 | +5.6% | +18.1% | 72 | 28 | 50▲200 235d | trending up | ▲ up · overbought · confirming | — |
| XLI | 180.25 | -1.7% | +6.3% | 43 | 15 | 50▲200 296d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · soft · diverging | — |
| XLY | 118.02 | +1.0% | +0.8% | 54 | 16 | 50▼200 36d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| XLP | 85.99 | +0.5% | +3.8% | 54 | 16 | 50▲200 135d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLU | 42.77 | -3.0% | -4.4% | 33 | 12 | 50▲200 302d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | — |
| XLB | 53.54 | +2.5% | +8.0% | 61 | 12 | 50▲200 270d | range / mixed | ▲ up · firm · confirming | — |
| XLRE | 45.08 | +0.0% | +5.1% | 52 | 9 | 50▲200 120d | basing / coiling | ▲ up · neutral · confirming | — |
| XLC | 111.40 | +0.7% | -2.3% | 52 | 11 | 50▼200 67d | basing / coiling | ▼ down · neutral · diverging | — |
| Themes & speculative | |||||||||
| SMH | 560.42 | -0.4% | +20.0% | 46 | 15 | 50▲200 288d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · neutral · diverging | semiconductors / AI capex |
| KWEB | 26.66 | -3.9% | -14.0% | 44 | 15 | 50▼200 143d | range / mixed | ▼ down · soft · confirming | China internet |
| MSOS | 4.96 | +12.1% | +13.6% | 64 | 12 | 50▲200 56d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | US cannabis (regulatory catalyst) |
| TAN | 49.32 | -3.2% | -10.6% | 39 | 21 | 50▼200 3d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | solar |
| XHB | 106.50 | -1.3% | -0.5% | 47 | 11 | 50▲200 17d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · confirming | homebuilders |
| XBI | 165.73 | +6.3% | +24.9% | 63 | 23 | 50▲200 244d | range / mixed | ▲ up · firm · confirming | biotech |
| IGV | 103.37 | +3.4% | +10.2% | 60 | 25 | 50▲200 3d | trending up | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | software |
| ARKK | 86.21 | +10.4% | +12.4% | 66 | 20 | 50▲200 29d | range / mixed | ▶ flat · firm · diverging | disruptive-growth / speculation |
| URA | 46.07 | +7.3% | -5.1% | 60 | 18 | 50▼200 35d | basing → turning up | ▼ down · firm · diverging | uranium / nuclear |
| ITA | 237.34 | -3.8% | +3.9% | 40 | 20 | 50▲200 302d | pulling back in uptrend | ▲ up · soft · diverging | aerospace & defense |
| Regime proxies | |||||||||
| HYG | 79.61 | +0.1% | -0.7% | 51 | 14 | 50▼200 104d | basing / coiling | ▶ flat · neutral · diverging | — |
| LQD | 105.92 | -0.3% | -3.1% | 42 | 23 | 50▼200 102d | range / mixed | ▼ down · soft · confirming | — |
| TLT | 82.05 | -0.6% | -5.2% | 43 | 23 | 50▼200 106d | range / mixed | ▼ down · soft · confirming | — |
| GLD | 423.36 | +7.8% | +2.4% | 71 | 27 | 50▼200 37d | range / mixed | ▲ up · overbought · confirming | — |
| UUP | 27.90 | -0.9% | +0.6% | 35 | 25 | 50▲200 71d | pulling back in uptrend | ▶ flat · soft · confirming | — |
03yfinance · EOD 2026-08-21
Sector & Thematic Rotation
baton passing: SMH → XBI, ARKK, MSOS
● sector◆ themeLeadingWeakeningLaggingImproving (muted)
Rotation call
LeadersXBI · ARKK · MSOS · XLE · XLV · XLB
Weakening off the topSMH
Turning up5 Improving names
'Weakening' ≠ falling — SMH is still +20% above its 200-DMA. The 5-name Improving cluster is the breadth story, seen in rotation-space.
How to read: RS = each fund vs SPY; RS-Ratio 100 = the fund’s own 1y average RS, not SPY parity — >100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright. RS-Momentum >100 = that ratio improving. Window 252d · momentum lag 20d. Axes auto-scale to the day’s spread independently — read quadrant and direction of travel, not diagonal distance.
04AUM approx · yfinance · 2026-08-21
Leverage & Fragility
fragility concentrates in tech; crowding breach in semis
Fragility rank · EOD rebalance footprint
% of proxy-ETF ADV per 1% move · higher = more mechanical leveraged flow
techrank #1 · ~4.09× median of 12 sectors · 1.1× the #2
24.2% of proxy-ETF ADV
semis
22.7% of proxy-ETF ADV
homebuilders
15.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-ndx
9.5% of proxy-ETF ADV
financials
8.8% of proxy-ETF ADV
china
8.1% of proxy-ETF ADV
biotech
3.7% of proxy-ETF ADV
broad-spx
2.9% of proxy-ETF ADV
regional-banks
2.4% of proxy-ETF ADV
small-cap
1.9% of proxy-ETF ADV
gold-miners
1.6% of proxy-ETF ADV
energy
0.5% of proxy-ETF ADV
funds · AUM · ADV — all sectors
tech TECL / TECS · AUM $5.8B · ADV $1.4B · rebalance/1% $349.7M
semis SOXL / SOXS · AUM $21.3B · ADV $6.0B · rebalance/1% $1.4B
homebuilders NAIL · AUM $552.8M · ADV $215.0M · rebalance/1% $33.2M
broad-ndx TQQQ / SQQQ / QLD / QID · AUM $51.6B · ADV $27.8B · rebalance/1% $2.7B
financials FAS / FAZ · AUM $2.4B · ADV $1.7B · rebalance/1% $152.2M
china YINN / YANG · AUM $791.5M · ADV $656.4M · rebalance/1% $53.4M
biotech LABU / LABD · AUM $741.9M · ADV $1.3B · rebalance/1% $48.6M
broad-spx SPXL / SPXS / UPRO / SSO / SDS / SPXU · AUM $22.0B · ADV $35.1B · rebalance/1% $1.0B
regional-banks DPST · AUM $354.0M · ADV $901.2M · rebalance/1% $21.2M
small-cap TNA / TZA · AUM $1.5B · ADV $5.8B · rebalance/1% $106.9M
gold-miners NUGT / DUST · AUM $1.6B · ADV $2.2B · rebalance/1% $34.3M
energy ERX / ERY · AUM $303.9M · ADV $1.6B · rebalance/1% $7.7M
Speculative intensity · LETF ÷ vanilla $-volume
> 1.0× = leveraged turnover exceeds the plain ETF — a crowding thermometer.
1.0×
semis2.04×
broad-ndx0.25×
homebuilders0.22×
biotech0.17×
tech0.11×
china0.08×
small-cap0.08×
gold-miners0.07×
broad-spx0.05×
financials0.05×
regional-banks0.04×
energy0.02×
Semis is the sole breach — leveraged $-volume 2.04× the vanilla ETF; the next-highest sector is 0.25×.
Single-stock LETF froth · bull vs bear
Bullish · long
$22.7BΔ -$930.2M vs Wed Aug 19
58 funds · top 2 (MUU + TSLL) = 34.7% of side
Bearish · inverse
$341.4M
4 funds
66.4×
bull ÷ bear
All US leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs with AUM of at least $50M whose AUM the multi-source resolver can TRUST (issuer-published arbiter plus aggregator agreement); underlying-agnostic; option-income funds (YieldMax etc.) are excluded by construction. Captures ~85% of the AUM in the leveraged/inverse single-stock subset. EXCLUDED: real funds of at least $50M whose AUM cannot be trusted — no issuer file to arbitrate and Schwab/yfinance diverge, or a Schwab stale-share glitch with no arbiter (SNXX ~$3.3B plus NVDX, SNDU, ROBN, WDCX and others, ~$6.9B total). This therefore UNDER-counts the subset and never over-states. The full single-stock complex (400+ funds including option-income) is materially larger; this is NOT a census of that total.
ΔSO methodology · fund breakdown (bull · bear)
ΔSO 5-day net-creation join: 59 not in the flows universe · 2 issuer unsupported in flows — states, not errors (null carries a reason, never a fabricated flow).
MUU$4.0B · 17.8% of side
TSLL$3.8B · 16.9% of side
NVDL$3.5B · 15.4% of side
GGLL$977.9M · 4.3% of side
AMDL$925.1M · 4.1% of side
MSFU$591.9M · 2.6% of side
TSMX$561.7M · 2.5% of side
MULL$529.9M · 2.3% of side
NVDU$523.8M · 2.3% of side
PLTU$457.7M · 2.0% of side
METU$438.1M · 1.9% of side
ASTX$316.0M · 1.4% of side
IRE$290.3M · 1.3% of side
INTW$289.9M · 1.3% of side
AMZU$283.8M · 1.3% of side
ORCX$230.2M · 1.0% of side
MSTX$218.2M · 1.0% of side
NOWL$215.3M · 0.9% of side
AVL$214.2M · 0.9% of side
LITX$210.2M · 0.9% of side
NEBX$210.1M · 0.9% of side
IONX$202.3M · 0.9% of side
RKLX$198.6M · 0.9% of side
AXTX$178.0M · 0.8% of side
NBIL$173.2M · 0.8% of side
AAPU$172.0M · 0.8% of side
BEX$166.0M · 0.7% of side
AVGX$163.7M · 0.7% of side
FBL$161.4M · 0.7% of side
SMCX$161.2M · 0.7% of side
TSLT$157.2M · 0.7% of side
NFXL$154.7M · 0.7% of side
OKLL$144.3M · 0.6% of side
CRCA$136.5M · 0.6% of side
MRVU$134.6M · 0.6% of side
CRWG$113.5M · 0.5% of side
DLLL$106.5M · 0.5% of side
COHX$105.3M · 0.5% of side
BABX$96.7M · 0.4% of side
CRDU$80.3M · 0.4% of side
QBTX$78.7M · 0.3% of side
HIMZ$76.4M · 0.3% of side
SOFX$72.4M · 0.3% of side
UNHG$71.8M · 0.3% of side
TSLR$71.5M · 0.3% of side
AMUU$65.7M · 0.3% of side
RGTX$60.0M · 0.3% of side
LINT$59.8M · 0.3% of side
TSMU$56.7M · 0.3% of side
ARMG$55.6M · 0.2% of side
APLX$54.0M · 0.2% of side
QCML$49.3M · 0.2% of side
LLYX$46.3M · 0.2% of side
MRAL$46.1M · 0.2% of side
VRTL$44.0M · 0.2% of side
CRWL$42.5M · 0.2% of side
NVOX$38.4M · 0.2% of side
LNOK$28.9M · 0.1% of side
SSPC$197.4M · 57.8% of side
TSLS$60.4M · 17.7% of side
NVD$52.9M · 15.5% of side
MUD$30.7M · 9.0% of side
delta_so_direction is a best-effort join to the flows feed (sign of 5-day net creations). null carries a reason (flow-accruing / issuer-unsupported-in-flows / not-in-flows-universe / flows-feed-absent) — never fabricated. Total assets in leveraged/inverse single-stock ETFs, split bullish (long) vs bearish (inverse). A gauge of how much capital sits in single-stock leveraged bets; AUM is price-sensitive, so a rising tape lifts the level even without new creations (read alongside flows). Descriptive context, not a buy/sell signal.
Descriptive cross-sectional rank — not a forced-move prediction.
Read as: A within-complex severity indicator relative to the proxy ETF's own liquidity, and a DIRECTIONAL cross-sector ordering — not a calibrated forced-move or market-impact prediction.
Denominator is a proxy: The denominator is a PROXY, not the venue that absorbs the rebalance. LETF rebalance hedges execute in the underlying basket / index futures / swaps, NOT on the vanilla ETF's tape. Dividing by the vanilla ETF's ADV$ therefore biases the cross-sector RANK by how liquid each proxy ETF happens to be (a thin proxy inflates its complex's rank). A calibrated market-impact denominator would use the underlying basket/futures ADV, which is not wired here.
methodology & literature caveat
Fragility = estimated leveraged-ETF end-of-day rebalance flow per 1% index move, as a share of the underlying vanilla ETF’s ADV — a cross-sectional rank, not an absolute forced-flow forecast. Cross-sector rankings only — not absolute forced-move predictors. Cheng & Madhavan (2009) documented a statistically real EOD rebalancing effect; a 2024 survey of the literature contests its economic significance. This feed is descriptive market-environment context, not a buy/sell signal.
05issuer / yfinance · as-of 2026-08-23
What you actually own
Hidden mega-cap / AI-capex concentration
Cap-weighting means sheer size — not conviction — sets the weights. The mega-cap AI-capex complex (hyperscalers, AI semiconductors, mega-cap tech) sits atop most funds’ holdings, so a fund’s LABEL — “Consumer Discretionary”, “Communication Services”, “broad market” — can quietly resolve to the same dozen names. Each bar is the share of the fund — % of fund weight — sitting in that complex, counted from the fund’s disclosed top-10 holdings only (a floor on the true exposure).
Carries the AI-capex mega-caps
SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETFNVDA 20.8% · TSM 9.6%
48.0%
XLY State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETFAMZN 25.6% · TSLA 14.7%
40.3%
QQQ Invesco QQQ TrustNVDA 8.0% · MSFT 5.7%
38.8%
XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFNVDA 13.8% · MSFT 9.8%
36.6%
XLC State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETFMETA 16.6% · GOOGL 11.0%
36.4%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustNVDA 7.5% · MSFT 5.4%
27.7%
IGV iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETFMSFT 9.6% · ORCL 5.3%
14.9%
ARKK ARK Innovation ETFTSLA 9.7% · AMD 4.0%
13.7%
DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF TrustMSFT 5.3% · GOOGL 4.0%
9.3%
Genuine diversifiers (<5% of fund weight · top-10 floor)
18 funds at ~0% in the top-10 window — incl. FXI · ITA · IWM …
show all 18
FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF
0.0%
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
0.0%
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF
0.0%
KRE State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
0.0%
KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
0.0%
MSOS AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
0.0%
TAN Invesco Solar ETF
0.0%
URA Global X Uranium ETF
0.0%
XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
0.0%
XHB State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
0.0%
XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLE State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLF State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLI State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLP State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLRE State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLU State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
0.0%
bond / FX / commodity funds (GLD · HYG · LQD · TLT · UUP) excluded — 0% AI-equity there is a category fact, not a diversification finding.
Look-through = the % of the fund (by weight) sitting in the AI-capex complex, counted from the top-10 disclosed holdings only — a floor (near-complete for the mega-caps, since they ARE the top holdings; positions below the top-10 are not counted). Descriptive: a fund’s own disclosed holdings, not advice.
Glossary — the shorthand this page leans on
- contango / backwardation
- the VIX term-structure shapes: near-term volatility priced below longer-dated (contango — the usual state) vs above it (backwardation — a stress marker).
- ADV
- average daily $-volume of a fund's shares — the liquidity yardstick §04's rebalance footprints are measured against.
- LETF
- leveraged ETF — delivers a daily multiple (2× / 3×, long or inverse) of its index and must rebalance toward the close every session.
- RS (relative strength)
- a fund's price divided by SPY's, indexed so 100 = the fund's own 1y average — above 100 means stronger than its own baseline, not beating SPY outright.
- diffusion
- the share of tracked equity names above a moving average — §02's participation gauge.
- golden / death cross
- the 50-day average crossing above (golden) or below (death) the 200-day — a slow-moving trend-change marker.
- percentile windows
- every “%ile” on this page ranks today against the stated lookback only (1y unless labelled otherwise), never against all history.
- signal strength
- a 0–1 engine score for how strongly a §00·5 convergence or tension holds: corroboration breadth (how many legs agree) for convergences, a rule-specific score for tensions (some rules scale with the reading, others assign a fixed weight) — not a probability or confidence interval.