Tragic Algebra
Delta-E Pooled Screening
Detecting companies whose equity has quietly compounded through issuance, convertibles, or warrant dilution — the "tragic algebra" where share count growth erodes per-share value even as the business line screams green.
Sector Rollup
Weighted mean Delta-E and Tragic Tier count across 6 sectors (103 tickers)
Consumer Disc.
11.5%
6 in tragic tier
Energy
14.3%
3 in tragic tier
Health Care
6.8%
8 in tragic tier
Industrials
9.1%
2 in tragic tier
Technology
8.2%
20 in tragic tier
Financials
7.4%
1 in tragic tier
Delta-E × Log Market Cap
Drag the slider ends to zoom the market-cap range; scroll inside the chart to pan. Small-cap clusters are easier to read when the big caps aren't crowding the frame.
Tragic Tier · 40 tickers
| Ticker | Δ-E | Mkt Cap | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRSR | 24.8% | $1.2B | Consumer Disc. |
| LQDT | 22.1% | $280M | Industrials |
| ANGO | 21.5% | $320M | Health Care |
| CWST | 19.8% | $4.1B | Industrials |
| HRTX | 18.6% | $190M | Health Care |
| MORF | 18.2% | $850M | Health Care |
| QUAD | 17.9% | $240M | Industrials |
| HMST | 17.3% | $370M | Financials |
| BOIL | 16.8% | $1.8B | Energy |
| XHMR | 16.4% | $92M | Technology |
| HGOX | 15.9% | $440M | Energy |
| VRSK | 15.3% | $36.0B | Industrials |
Methodology Notes
- Delta-E (pooled) measures cumulative equity issuance — common shares, convertible dilution, and warrant exercise — normalized to market cap over a 5-year look-back.
- "Tragic tier" flag triggers when Delta-E pooled exceeds the sector median by more than 2 standard deviations, indicating quiet share-count creep masked by headline revenue or earnings growth.
- Data sourced from SEC EDGAR via edgartools structured extraction. No LLM parsing. 103 tickers covered across 6 sectors. Screening refreshes after each quarterly filing season.
- Limitations: backward-looking; does not adjust for capital-efficient dilution (buybacks, spin-offs, or accretive M&A); small-cap names under $200M market cap may lack statistically meaningful baseline.
Data as of Apr 17, 2026
CITATION
Framework: "Tragic Algebra"
Published by M. Burry
Substack, April 2026